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KFH expects oil prices to recover in final months of 2014

KFH expects oil prices to recover in final months of 2014
In August 2014, Kuwait’s oil production was at 2.89mln barrels per day, from July’s 2.88mln figure. Kuwait’s oil production picked up slightly in the past two months from May and June’s level of 2.80mln. Average oil production in the past three months was at 2.86mln barrels for the months of June, July and August 2014, according to a recent report by KFH Research.

Kuwait has increased its oil production capacity to 3.3mln barrels of oil a day (bpd) and is hoping to reach 3.5mln bpd in 2015.

Kuwaiti officials have previously said that capacity in the OPEC member state was around 3.1-3.2mln bpd. Kuwait hopes to reach 4.0mln bpd of capacity in 2020, despite slow progress in developing new projects. Tenders to build Kuwait's fourth refinery, Al Zour, have been extended after delays and political opposition in the past. Mohammed Ghazi al-Mutairi, chief executive of state-run refiner Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC), said closing dates for tenders to build the refinery have been extended until November 2014 and January 2015 after the companies involved asked for more time.

Al Zour refinery, one of the biggest in the Middle East, is expected to start operations by May 2019 after closing dates for the tenders have been pushed back by few months, added al-Mutairi. The Al Zour refinery will produce oil products such as diesel, kerosene and naphtha for export and low-sulphur fuel oil for domestic power stations. It is a major part of Kuwait's economic development plan to upgrade its infrastructure, is expected to cost around KWD4bln (USD14.18bln).


Kuwait’s plans to upgrade and expand two of its existing refineries, known as the Clean Fuels Project, is also part of the country’s economic development plan, which has been delayed by politics in the past. Under the project, the capacity of Mina al-Ahmadi refinery will drop to 347,000 bpd from 466,000 bpd, while Mina Abdulla refinery’s capacity will rise to 454,000 bpd from 270,000 bpd now.

The 200,000 bpd Shuaiba refinery will be shut down. Kuwait’s oil production is in line with the recent OPEC oil output and other member countries. OPEC crude oil production increased to a one-year high in August 2014, led by surging output in Nigeria, a Bloomberg survey showed. Production by the 12-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries rose by 891,000 barrels a day to 31.03 mln, according to the survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. July’s total was revised 80,000 barrels a day lower to 30.14 mln because of changes to the Nigerian and Iranian estimates.

Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Angola led gains as new deposits came online, security improved and field maintenance programs ended. Iran and Venezuela were the only members to record production declines.

State-run Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) and China's Unipec signed a landmark deal on Friday, 22 August that will almost double crude oil deliveries over a decade, the biggest-ever contract in KPC's history.

Under the agreement, KPC will provide Unipec crude oil, starting from 2014, with the volume exepeted to reach 300,000 barrels per day (bpd). KPC reached the historic 10 year deal with Unipec, the trading arm of China's top refiner Sinopec, to replace the 160,000-170,000 bpd supply contract that had lapsed. KPC will export 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil under the agreement, which would amount to 15% of Kuwaiti petroleum exports and estimated to be worth USD120bln.

Two Indian companies and one British firm emerged as the main winners of Kuwait's oil contracts in July and August 2014, grabbing nearly USD2.3bln out of the total USD4bln awarded during that period. The government-owned Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) signed a total 40 contracts with around USD4bln during the month, the highest deal in two months over the past years.

July 2014 was the busiest month for oil contracts in years, with USD2.9bln worth of deals signed. Meanwhile, deals worth USD1.1bln were signed in August 2014. Contracts worth around USD2.3 bln were awarded to Larsen & Toubro Limited and Dodsal of India and to the UK's Petrofac. The contracts won by those three firms involved the construction of three oil gathering centres in north Kuwait. Other deals included a USD500mln contract for the supply of 38 oil well drilling towers won by some local firms, a USD247mln seismic survey for Burgan oilfield and a USD285mln contract to build an oil pipeline in north Kuwait won by the Kuwaiti combined group contracting company.

Meanwhile, the price of Kuwait Export Crude (KEC) decreased to USD94.85 per barrel as at 15 September 2014, on signs of weak demand weighed on the market. Ample supply and lacklustre buying interest in Asia and Europe weighed on the market. According to the IEA, oil demand growth in 2Q14 was at its lowest in two and a half years, dented by economic weakness in Europe and China, a trend the agency expects will continue to weigh on demand.

The IEA expects global oil demand to grow by 0.9mln barrels a day in 2014, a decrease of 65,000 barrels a day compared with August’s forecast and down by 300,000 barrels a day since July. The global oil market is well supplied. US oil production hit a 28-year high in August 2014, the US Energy Information Administration said Tuesday, 9 September, and Libyan production has climbed to 800,000 barrels a day from 200,000 barrels a day several months ago. Furthermore, the EIA's weekly storage data released on Wednesday, 10 September showed less demand for crude oil and petroleum products than had been expected.


According to the IEA, non-OPEC supply, meanwhile, fell by 170,000 bpd in July to under 56.2 mbpd. The largest contributor to the drop from June was Russia, which experienced a seasonal dip in condensate production and declines in some of its maturing fields during the month. In 2Q14, non-OPEC supply was at 55.9 mbpd, slightly lower compared to 56.4 mbpd in 1Q14.