Oil prices continued the downward movements during Sep-14 for the third consecutive month in a row across all baskets as sluggish demand, ample supply and a strong US dollar continued to be the key points pressuring the oil market where prices dropped by 20.9% since end of June-14 as compared to the closing prices as of 13-Oct-14 ,said a recent report compiled by KAMCO research.
Likewise, Oil futures fell to their lowest point in more than a year and half, According to OPEC Monthly Report, as high output mainly from the Middle East and the United States outweighed fears of supply disruptions. This is in addition to the pressures from the weak economic data from the world’s biggest energy consumers.
OPEC Reference Basket dropped to an average of USD 95.9/b in September, the lowest level since June-2012, down substantially by USD 4.77/b or around 4.7% below last month’s price level when it reached an average of USD 100.75/b, and closed the month at a low of USD 94.17/b. Moreover, the basket saw a further drop during the first half of October by around 8.8%, to reach a low of USD 85.93/b as of 13-Oct-2014 and average USD 89.1/b, a level last seen since early Dec-2010. The Basket’s average price has dropped by USD 11.91/b or around 11% during Q3-14. Likewise, for the 9-month period, OPEC Reference Basket’s value was 1.8% lower compared with the same period one year earlier, standing at an average of USD 103.78/b compare to an average of USD 105.69/b a year ago. As well, for the YTD period ending 13-Oct-14, oil prices dropped by 20.4% or around USD 22/b.
On the other hand, Kuwait Blend Spot Price FOB averaged USD 96.2/b, down from an average of USD 101.5/b in August-2014, and closed the month at USD 94.71/b; moreover, prices continued the downward movement to drop by around 10.1% during the first half of October to reach USD 85.17/b as of 14-Oct-14, a level last seen in Dec-2010. Meanwhile, European Brent Spot Price FOB averaged around USD 97.3/b, from an average of USD 101.6/b recorded during Aug-2014. The basket closed the month at USD 94.67/b and further dropped to reach USD 90.65/b on 6-Oct-14.
Total world oil demand growth for 2014 is estimated at 1.05 Mn b/d, or an increase of 1.17%, to stand at 91.19 Mn b/d compared to 90.14 Mn b/d for the year 2013. The forecast growth is supported by positive performance from China, Brazil and Saudi Arabia, offsetting lower-than-expected growth in some OECD regions. On the other hand, 2015 world oil demand is projected to expand at a higher rate than the previous year, growing by 1.19 Mn b/d from the 2014 level to average around 92.38 Mn b/d.
Meanwhile , total non-OPEC supply is estimated to have averaged 55.91 Mn b/d by the end of 2014, an increase of 1.68 Mn b/d or 3.1%. This growth is mainly attributable to higher oil supply from OECD Americas which is estimated to have increased their supplies by 1.50 Mn b/d during 2014. Moreover, Non-OPEC oil supply growth is expected to continue in 2015 and to expand by 1.24 Mn b/d to average at 57.16 Mn b/d supported mainly by higher oil supply from OECD Americas, Latin America and China.
OPEC production increased by 1.4% during Sep-14, to stand at 30.93 Mn b/d, a jump of 0.413 Mn b/d compared to last month. This surge in oil output came mainly from a higher production by Libya, Angola, UAE, Kuwait as well as KSA all together adding a total of 0.55 Mb b/d during the month, while partially offset by the lower production in Nigeria, Algeria and Iran.
During the month of Sep-14, OPEC was producing at 83% compared to a production rate of 82.1% a month earlier, while the largest OPEC oil producer Saudi Arabia was operating at 77.2% of its capacity along with Iraq at 84.9%. The total spare capacity by OPEC countries stood at around 6.31 Mn b/d, or around 17% of total capacity.
However, on a year-to-date basis, OEPC crude oil average monthly production for YTD-Sep-14 saw a decline of 1.6% or around 503,000 b/d to average around 30.25 Mn b/d, compared with 30.75 Mn b/d for the last comparable period a year earlier.
Saudi Arabia share of production during Sep-14 stood at 31.2% to register a production of 9.65 Mn b/d as compared to 9.6 Mn b/d in Aug-14, followed by Iraq, Kuwait and UAE at 10% (or 3.01 Mn b/d), 9.5% (or 2.94 Mn b/d) and 9.2% (or 2.85 Mn b/d) respectively, while Iran’s share of production dropped to 9.0% compared to last month’s level of 9.2%, with a lower output by 20,000 b/d. The share of production by the GCC states represented 58.1% or 16.18 Mn b/d of total OPEC-11 which stood at 27.8 Mn b/d in Sep-14.
Likewise, Oil futures fell to their lowest point in more than a year and half, According to OPEC Monthly Report, as high output mainly from the Middle East and the United States outweighed fears of supply disruptions. This is in addition to the pressures from the weak economic data from the world’s biggest energy consumers.
OPEC Reference Basket dropped to an average of USD 95.9/b in September, the lowest level since June-2012, down substantially by USD 4.77/b or around 4.7% below last month’s price level when it reached an average of USD 100.75/b, and closed the month at a low of USD 94.17/b. Moreover, the basket saw a further drop during the first half of October by around 8.8%, to reach a low of USD 85.93/b as of 13-Oct-2014 and average USD 89.1/b, a level last seen since early Dec-2010. The Basket’s average price has dropped by USD 11.91/b or around 11% during Q3-14. Likewise, for the 9-month period, OPEC Reference Basket’s value was 1.8% lower compared with the same period one year earlier, standing at an average of USD 103.78/b compare to an average of USD 105.69/b a year ago. As well, for the YTD period ending 13-Oct-14, oil prices dropped by 20.4% or around USD 22/b.
On the other hand, Kuwait Blend Spot Price FOB averaged USD 96.2/b, down from an average of USD 101.5/b in August-2014, and closed the month at USD 94.71/b; moreover, prices continued the downward movement to drop by around 10.1% during the first half of October to reach USD 85.17/b as of 14-Oct-14, a level last seen in Dec-2010. Meanwhile, European Brent Spot Price FOB averaged around USD 97.3/b, from an average of USD 101.6/b recorded during Aug-2014. The basket closed the month at USD 94.67/b and further dropped to reach USD 90.65/b on 6-Oct-14.
Total world oil demand growth for 2014 is estimated at 1.05 Mn b/d, or an increase of 1.17%, to stand at 91.19 Mn b/d compared to 90.14 Mn b/d for the year 2013. The forecast growth is supported by positive performance from China, Brazil and Saudi Arabia, offsetting lower-than-expected growth in some OECD regions. On the other hand, 2015 world oil demand is projected to expand at a higher rate than the previous year, growing by 1.19 Mn b/d from the 2014 level to average around 92.38 Mn b/d.
Meanwhile , total non-OPEC supply is estimated to have averaged 55.91 Mn b/d by the end of 2014, an increase of 1.68 Mn b/d or 3.1%. This growth is mainly attributable to higher oil supply from OECD Americas which is estimated to have increased their supplies by 1.50 Mn b/d during 2014. Moreover, Non-OPEC oil supply growth is expected to continue in 2015 and to expand by 1.24 Mn b/d to average at 57.16 Mn b/d supported mainly by higher oil supply from OECD Americas, Latin America and China.
OPEC production increased by 1.4% during Sep-14, to stand at 30.93 Mn b/d, a jump of 0.413 Mn b/d compared to last month. This surge in oil output came mainly from a higher production by Libya, Angola, UAE, Kuwait as well as KSA all together adding a total of 0.55 Mb b/d during the month, while partially offset by the lower production in Nigeria, Algeria and Iran.
During the month of Sep-14, OPEC was producing at 83% compared to a production rate of 82.1% a month earlier, while the largest OPEC oil producer Saudi Arabia was operating at 77.2% of its capacity along with Iraq at 84.9%. The total spare capacity by OPEC countries stood at around 6.31 Mn b/d, or around 17% of total capacity.
However, on a year-to-date basis, OEPC crude oil average monthly production for YTD-Sep-14 saw a decline of 1.6% or around 503,000 b/d to average around 30.25 Mn b/d, compared with 30.75 Mn b/d for the last comparable period a year earlier.
Saudi Arabia share of production during Sep-14 stood at 31.2% to register a production of 9.65 Mn b/d as compared to 9.6 Mn b/d in Aug-14, followed by Iraq, Kuwait and UAE at 10% (or 3.01 Mn b/d), 9.5% (or 2.94 Mn b/d) and 9.2% (or 2.85 Mn b/d) respectively, while Iran’s share of production dropped to 9.0% compared to last month’s level of 9.2%, with a lower output by 20,000 b/d. The share of production by the GCC states represented 58.1% or 16.18 Mn b/d of total OPEC-11 which stood at 27.8 Mn b/d in Sep-14.
Source:
Press Release
