Mubasher: The price of Brent crude oil is expected to hover above $80 per barrel (pb) at the end of 2024, as market sentiment shifts towards a more reserved outlook for demand.

In a survey by Bloomberg Intelligence, around 53% of respondents thought that OPEC+ is targeting $80 pb as a floor, while only 5% expected the price to exceed $100, according to a press release.

About 24% of the survey’s respondents expect oil demand to peak before 2030, down from around 50% in a similar survey conducted in 2022 oil survey, marking a market sentiment shift concerning the oil demand outlook.

However, the vast majority of respondents (92%) consider the current price of oil to be less than it should be, having a premium of less than $5 pb, despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Salih Yilmaz, Senior Industry Analyst - Energy at Bloomberg Intelligence, said: “The turmoil in the Red Sea and the Israel-Hamas conflict has arguably had a limited effect on prices, given there hasn't been any substantial disruption to oil flows, and OPEC+ has a meaningful amount of spare capacity.”

Yilmaz added: “According to our findings, geopolitical developments have been one of the key drivers of crude in the past few months though only 10% of the respondents think this will be the biggest driver of oil prices over the next two years.”

As per 51% of respondents of Bloomberg Intelligence’s survey, the global oil demand is expected to range between 102 and 103 million barrels per day on average in 2024, up from 101.8 mmbpd in 2023.

“Global demand growth was underwhelming last year, driven by a softening outlook in China amid rising unemployment and turmoil in its property sector. Even so, demand is still expected to reach another record this year, helped by a further recovery in jet-fuel consumption - about 8% of the pre-pandemic total,” Yilmaz concluded.