OPEC basket price falls $1 MoM in August

OPEC basket price falls $1 MoM in August

Mubasher: The average price for a basket of crudes from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) producers declined by $1.01 month-on-month to $72.26 per barrel (pb) in August.

Last month, ICE Brent went down $1.11 to $73.84 pb, compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI sank $2.74 month-on-month to $67.85 pb and DME Oman decreased by $0.24 to $72.67 pb versus the month before, according to OPEC monthly oil market report.  

“Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases,” the report said.

Meanwhile, ICE Brent added $19.86 year-to-date to $72 pb, while NYMEX WTI rose $17.12 to $66.42 pb and DME Oman went up $18.70 to $69.55 in the same period.

“As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased.” OPEC revealed.

Global growth

The global gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast stood at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, while the forecast of the US GDP growth remained at 2.9% for 2018 and 2.5% for 2019.

The Euro-zone’s expected GDP growth was at 2.0% for the full year 2018 and at 1.9% in 2019, while Japan’s expected GDP growth was 1.1% for both years, OPEC’s data showed.

“Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019.”

World Oil Demand

In 2018, the global demand for oil is expected to grow by 1.62 million barrels per day, which is a downgraded revision compared to the last month’s figures.

In the organisation for economic co-operation and development (OECD) region, oil demand grew in the first six months of 2018, while the non-OECD region saw weaker demand in the same period, OPEC noted.

“Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 million bpb. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 million bpd for the first time and reach 100.23 million bpb.”

World Oil Supply

Oil supplied by non-OPEC producers is expected to increase by 2.02 million bpd in 2018 to reach 59.56 million bpd and to level up 2.15 million bpd in 2019, the report noted.

“The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines,” it added. 

Last month, OPEC crude oil production rose 278 kbpd to 32.56 mbpd, as per secondary sources.

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Source: Mubasher