Mubasher: Oil prices hiked on Tuesday on signs that oil exports from Iran have dropped in October compared to a month earlier, before the US sanctions against the Persian Gulf crude exporter come into effect as of 4 November.

In the first two weeks of October, Iran, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) third-largest producer, has exported 1.33 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 1.6 million bpd in September, according to Refinitiv Eikon data.

It is worth noting that Iran’s October crude exports have fallen sharply from the 2.5 million bpd exported in April before the US withdrew in May from the nuclear deal signed in 2015 with Tehran and reinstated economic sanctions on the oil-rich nation.

“Uncertainties will remain until Nov. 4 when it would be clear whether the United States would want to cut Iran oil exports to zero or grant waivers,” Vincent Hwang, commodity analyst at NH Investment and Securities in Seoul, told Reuters.

In the same vein, geopolitical tensions caused by the disappearance of a Saudi journalist and Washington Post columnist, Jamal Khashoggi, in Turkey since 2 October have pushed up crude prices.

The US and European nations have threatened punishment if the oil rich kingdom is found to be behind Khashoggi’s disappearance.

On Monday, the Saudi Press Agency issued a statement saying Riyadh rejects all threats of economic sanctions, political pressure and false accusations, adding that it will respond to any action with “greater action.”

Saudi Arabia, which has the world’s only sizable spare oil output capacity, is forecast to export more to compensate the loss of Iranian oil supply from the sanctions.

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Monday that the OPEC kingpin nation would raise its current 10.7 million barrel-per-day oil production in November.

By 8:18 am, US Nymex futures dropped 0.74% to settle at $71.25 per barrel (pb), while Brent crude futures rose 0.71% to $80.21 pb.