Mubasher: China would likely ramp up imports from African nations as it sought alternatives to source commodities amid an escalating trade war with the US.

Trade ties between the world’s second largest economy and African countries like Kenya have been growing strongly in recent years, providing banks like Standard Chartered, who serve Chinese clients conducting business on the continent.

“Trade flow patterns will change because China will need to look for new trade partners,” Standard Chartered Bank’s global head of the internationalisation of the Chinese currency renminbi (RMB) Carmen Ling told Reuters.

Although the trade war would leave no winners on the short term, some African nations would win in the long term, Ling said.

“We believe that countries like Kenya and Nigeria will benefit because China will look to import more from Africa; some agricultural products from Kenya, some oil products from Nigeria,” Ling noted.

Over the past four years, Kenya’s trade with China grew 59% to a total of $5.2 billion, which strengthened Standard Chartered’s business from Chinese clients in Kenya by “double digits,” the bank said.

The African nation secured fund, technology and equipment from China over the past years to develop its infrastructure, including a $3.2 billion railway project from Mombasa to Nairobi.

“We see more and more Chinese clients coming to Kenya, we have seen Kenya grow in importance to become a belt and road hub [and] this is the gateway,” Ling said.

China’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative is a multi-billion dollar series of infrastructure projects to develop land and maritime commercial routes between Asia, Europe and Africa. It was criticised for claims that it would raise China’s loans to African countries, piling debt for future generations.

Ling criticised the slow adoption of the Chinese renminbi in trade deals between China and African countries, due to the absence of adequate clearing institution for the currency.