Mubasher: Standard Chartered forecast in a new report that Egypt would be among the world’s seven largest economies by 2030.
The UK-based bank, which relied on long-term projections, also said it expected seven emerging markets (EM) to be among the world’s largest by 2030, according to Bloomberg.
Other EMs to become among the world’s largest economies, according to Standard Chartered, include: Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil, and Russia.
Using purchasing power parity exchange rates and nominal gross domestic product (GDP), Standard Chartered expects China to become the largest economy in the world by 2020.
Meanwhile, it projected that India’s economy will be larger than the United States’ by 2020 and Indonesia “will break into the top five economies,” the news agency said.
"Our long-term growth forecasts are underpinned by one key principle: countries’ share of world GDP should eventually converge with their share of the world’s population, driven by the convergence of per-capita GDP between advanced and emerging economies," Standard Chartered economists explained in a note.
They forecast that India’s growth would rise to 7.8% by the 2020s, while China’s will east to 5% by 2030, indicating that this would reflect “a natural slowdown given the economy’s size.”
In terms of global GDP, Standard Chartered expects Asia’s share, which surged 28% in 2018 from 20% in 2010, to reach 35% by 2030, which is equivalent to that of the euro area and US combined.