Mubasher: Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in emerging markets will average above 4.5% in 2020, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

This pace remains sluggish compared to past peaks, as “emerging market growth slowed significantly in 2019 and the outlook for emerging markets in 2020 has tipped over to negative due to uncertainties around trade, politics, and policy,” Moody's said in a new report on Thursday.

“In the Middle East, geopolitical risks are a credit driver, in Asia trade uncertainties top downside risks, and in Latin America domestic politics and policy drive credit conditions,” the report noted,

Nonetheless, since emerging markets encompass a broad range of entities around the globe, Moody’s noted that some individual emerging market countries and corporations may have different degrees of exposure to each of these uncertainties.

“Although recession risk is in focus globally, we do not expect a recession to materialize in any of the larger emerging market economies except in Argentina,” said Moody's Senior Vice President, Gersan Zurita.

“Emerging markets will continue to have higher growth than developed markets with an expected average economic growth above 4.5% in 2020, compared with just under 1.5% across the largest advanced economies in 2020. However, growth rates are well below their historical averages, particularly in larger economies like Mexico, Russia, India, and China,” he added.

Moody's also expects stable conditions for infrastructure sectors in emerging markets.