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Analyst warns of ‘violent’ oil sell-off as Saudi eyes $100/barrel

Analyst warns of ‘violent’ oil sell-off as Saudi eyes $100/barrel

Mubasher: The data released on Wednesday which supported a rise in oil prices has made Saudi Arabia greedy for oil prices reaching $80 or even $100 per barrel, analysts have said.

“Supply disruptions and lower US inventories make a very compelling argument to enter or stay long oil, even at these lofty levels,” Stephen Innes, senior trader with OANDA, said in a note to clients on Thursday.

On Wednesday, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decline of 1.04 million barrels in US inventories, which in turn bolstered oil prices to three-and-a-half-year highs.

However, Tamas Varga, analyst at brokerage PVM Oil Associates, warned investors who think oil would extend its rise that Saudi Arabia’s wish for $100 per-barrel (pb) oil was unlikely to happen any time soon.

He said the reason that $100 pb was unlikely was that there was still too much oil “sloshing around right now”, according to MarketWatch.

For 2019, Varga said that the situation “looks tighter than 2018, and with prolonged high compliance from the 24 producing nations, $80 to $90/barrel oil prices are a real possibility.”

However, “until then, do not exclude the potential for a violent downside correction,” Varga told MarketWatch, noting that the reason he expects the correction to be “violent” was due to a lack in fundamental factors that could support a rise in oil prices, especially that despite last week’s decline in oil stockpiles, supply in the US remains high.

If oil prices reached the level desired by Saudi Arabia that could be described as “icing on the cake,” according to Innes.

By 1:49 pm GMT, Brent crude grew 1.08% to $74.27 pb, while US crude (Nymex) added 0.67% to $68.93 pb.